Winter Snow Forecast 2018-2019

So who out there has the skiing/snowboarding “bug” already? Are you anxious to get out on the snow yet? Those days are coming but I know it’s hard to wait.

Last year’s snow predictions were a bit off the mark here in the Midwestern United States if you ask me. We didn’t get much snow but our area was right on the border, so I can’t blame the prognosticators too much.

If you find any more predictions, please post them in the comments below.


El Nino

NOAA Makes Winter Weather Forecast for 2018-2019 Season (

Based on the early prediction for an El Niño winter, the NOAA has predicted that the Pacific Northwest and the Northern Rockies will all see below average to equal chances of precipitation from October through December. However, Colorado, parts of Utah, and the Southern Rockies are all expected to see above-average precipitation for the start of the season. New England is expected to see average precipitation throughout the start of the winter.

Winter 2019 forecast - USA

2019 Winter Weather Forecast: United States (

Above-Normal Temperatures (Almost) Everywhere

This winter, we expect to see above-normal temperatures almost everywhere in the United States, except in the Southwest, where we’re predicting a colder-than-normal season. Our milder-than-normal forecast is due to a decrease in solar activity and the expected arrival of a weak El Niño, which will prevent cold air masses from lingering in the North.

More Rain, Less Snow

In terms of precipitation, we are predicting above-normal levels for most of the country, except in the Southeast, southern California, the nation’s midsection, and parts of Alaska and Hawaii, where normal or below-normal precipitation amounts are expected instead.

As for snow, we expect to see below-normal levels of snowfall in areas that normally get snow, with the interior West and a small part of the nation’s midsection being the snowier-than-normal exceptions.

Winter 2019

NOAA: Winter Weather Forecast / Outlook For 2018 -2019 (

According to NOAA, the 2018 -2019 winter will kick-off with below average to equal chance of precipitation for the Pacific Northwest as well as the Northern Rockies and New England. Colorado and the Southern Rockies should see above average precipitation to start the winter season. Temperatures are forecasted to be above average across the United States.

For the months of January, February and March NOAA is calling for below average to equal chance of precipitation form most of the western ski resort as well as the northeast. Temperatures are also forecasted to be above normal.

It’s Going to Be Cold – Says the Farmer’s Almanac

Winter 2019 forecast

Farmer’s Almanac predicts a whopper of a winter (

The 2019 Farmer’s Almanac was published Monday, and with it comes a hotly (or coldly, as the case may be) anticipated bit of meteorological prognosticating: the Almanac’s yearly winter predictions.

“Contrary to some stories floating around on the internet, our time-tested, long-range formula is pointing towards a very long, cold and snow-filled winter,” Farmer’s Almanac editor Peter Geiger said in a statement. “We stand by our forecast and formula, which accurately predicted most of the winter storms last year as well as this summer’s steamy, hot conditions.”

Winter 18/19 Long-Range Weather Forecast (

What will the snow be like this ski season? When it comes to the long-range weather forecast for winter 2018/2019, we are currently on “El Niño Watch.” The consensus of model data predicts a 70 percent chance of an El Niño developing for the 18/19 ski season. That means warmer than normal water in the south Pacific will drive the overall weather patterns across the United States.

…the ski areas in best position for cooler temps and consistent snowfall include certain parts of Montana, Wyoming, Colorado and New Mexico (more details below). In the Northeast, we could see a few colder than normal stretches with Nor’easters being more likely than normal.

What will winter 2018-2019 hold? (

No matter what your seasonal suspicion is, questions are already starting to surface about what kind of winter southern Wisconsin will see.

“I think it’s going to be a slow start like it has been, but then late December it’ll hit you real hard and then it will be real slushy for a bit,” University of Wisconsin-Madison freshman Addie Zweifel said.

“I don’t really know what this winter is going to be like, but probably cold,” UW-Madison freshman Madison Mehlberg said.

Historic summer rains and flooding have some speculating a more severe winter season will visit Madison.

However, there is a surprisingly little connection between the two seasons.

NOAA Releases Updated 2018 – 2019 Winter Weather Forecast (

Outlook for 2018/19 winter

Finally, the outlooks! Both the temperature and precipitation outlooks depend to a certain extent on typical El Niño impacts, but forecasters think a weak El Niño event is most likely. This means that despite the potential for El Niño, confidence in this outlook is less than we had than during recent strong events like in the winter of 2015/16 (more on confidence below).


2019 Winter Forecast Map - USA

Places where the forecast odds favor a much colder than usual winter (blue colors) or much warmer than usual winter (red), or where the probability of a cold winter, a warm winter, or a near-normal winter are all equal (white). The darker the color, the stronger the chance of that outcome (not the bigger the departure from average). NOAA map, based on data from NOAA CPC.

Previous Post
Cascade Mountain - top of Manitou
Taking Skiing Lessons

Don’t Say… “I Almost Hit a Tree Once, So I’m Done Skiing” But Take a Lesson!

Next Post
Instructors in a skiing clinic

PSIA Level 3: Clinic for Ski Instructors – Pole Usage

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.