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Well, it’s July and that can only mean one thing… when do we get to ski again?
It seems that La Nina tried to happen last winter but didn’t quite live up to expectations. There isn’t a lot out yet for this winter (and I’ll update this page as that changes) but here’s what we know right now.
The chances of El Nino development are increasing, but uncertain according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center.
In NOAA’s latest ENSO (El Nino-Southern Oscillation) update, “ENSO-neutral conditions are favored to continue through at least the Northern Hemisphere spring 2017, with increasing chances for El Nino development by late summer and fall.”
The Climate Prediction Center’s “models predict the continuation of ENSO-neutral through the late Northern Hemisphere spring (April-June). However, at least one-half of the dynamical model forecasts… anticipate an onset of El Nino as soon as the April-June season.”
So… fingers crossed!
Stay tuned for more updates.
[UPDATE 7/29/2017:] The fall is looking to be warmer than normal over the United States.
Get ready for a warm Halloween
The East Coast, South, and Midwest will experience higher-than-average temperatures starting in September and lasting through November this year, according to the Weather Channel. Unusual weather patterns are to blame for the expected increase in temperatures in areas across the country, except in the Northwest region.
Will this carry into winter?
And the official word on El Nino is still a bit up in the air.
2018 Winter Weather Forecast | Long Range Prediction From NOAA (unofficialnetworks.com)
What NOAA’s official maps are showing us is that with a lack of an El Niño or La Niña event, this winter will see most of the continental United States with equal chances of an average winter in terms of snow. Temperature probability for much of the United States is a little more clear with NOAA calling for above average temperatures, everywhere except the upper midwest.
“Despite the ENSO-neutral forecast lean, we still have a fair number of models forecasting at least a weak El Niño through the upcoming winter. Therefore, forecasters certainly are not ruling out the development of El Niño; in fact, they are calling for an elevated chance, relative to average, of El Niño onset.” – NOAA
The Climate Prediction Center says there is a 55 percent chance of normal conditions in the El Nino region this winter. They also say if the water conditions change from the current forecast, it leans toward an El Nino.
So far, they’re saying a normal winter or maybe a little warm.
[UPDATE 08-08-2017:] Here’s a video comparing this next winter to 2009, which is interesting:
He’s calling a Mordecai El Niño, which is weak. The Eastern United States will see snow storms. It’ll be cold in the Midwest and wet down south.
[UPDATE 08-18-2017:] Information from the Farmer’s Almanac about winter 2017-2018 is here!
Winter Weather 2017-18: SHORTS OR SHOVELS? (farmersalmanac.com)
Cold conditions are back! According to the Farmers’ Almanac’s 200-year-old formula, this winter is expected to be a bit more “normal” as far as the temperatures are concerned, especially in the eastern and central parts of the country–chiefly those areas to the east of the Rocky Mountains–with many locations experiencing above-normal precipitation.
For the western third of the country—mainly those areas west of the Continental Divide—the overall winter will not be as wet as last year. Our forecasts are pointing to a return to more normal winter conditions in regard to both temperatures and precipitation.
From the Great Lakes into the Northeast, snowier-than-normal conditions are expected. We can hear the skiers, boarders, and snowmobilers cheering from here!
In general, it looks about average.
[UPDATE 09-12-2017:] Here’s another forecast which they’re calling it a “2014 repeat” forecast:
U.S WINTER 2017/2018 Preliminary Forecast (kasimsweatherwatcher.com)
A weak El Nino / modoki El Nino is forecast for the winter of 2017/18. For the US this generally equates to more in the way of blocking over the central areas meaning that unlike last winter in which the central portion of the US saw the most severe conditions…
Early thoughts for Winter 2017/18: Temperature: higher chance of near normal temperatures with deepest cold in the far East and far NW.
Snowfall: another season of lower than average snowfall is a probability.
Was 2014 a good snow year? I forgot. 🙂
[UPDATE 09-14-2017:] So, this usually happens by the end of September or early October… a good amount of snow in Montana or somewhere in that area:
The National Weather Service has issued Winter Storm Watches & Winter Weather Advisories for Idaho & Montana Thursday Night – Saturday Morning.
A strong fall storm is expected to hit the west late this week. Cold temperatures are expected to arrive along with it, which will turn rain into snow.
Up to 10″ of snow is expected to fall Thursday Night – Saturday Morning.
Wow, 10 inches. Nice. Bring it on!
[UPDATE 09-21-2017:] It’s an ENSO year and kind of a battle between El Niño and La Niña.
El Niño vs. La Niña Tug-of-War This Season (onthesnow.com)
17/18 Ski Season Long-Range Weather Forecast (onthesnow.com)
ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) describes how the South Pacific Ocean and atmosphere are interacting. They operate a feedback loop and the impact is global. Given that, the winter outlook is shaping up as follows:
– Colorado, Utah, Wyoming, Montana, Idaho: Normal to above normal snowfall this winter at the ski areas.
– Pacific Northwest: Normal snowfall at the ski areas.
– Whistler/Blackcomb & Banff: Normal to above normal snowfall.
– California: Normal to slightly below normal snowfall at the ski areas.
– Northeast: Normal snowfall at the ski areas.
[UPDATE 10-07-2017:] It’s snowing, people! Colorado got a nice dump of like 19″ or so last week and people were skiing at Loveland. Early snow is great!
Bring on that snow!
[UPDATE 10-10-2017:] A-Basin plans to open October 13th!
Arapahoe Basin to Open October 13th, 2017 (skimag.com)
Stay snowy, my friends,
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